The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has just released its latest employment projections summary, providing a comprehensive look into the labor market trends expected over the next decade. With the U.S. economy set to add 6.7 million jobs from 2023 to 2033, here is what you should take note of if you’re hiring.  

Employment Growth and Labor Force

While the U.S. economy is projected to expand, the expected annual growth rate of 0.4% is notably slower than the 1.3% rate experienced between 2013 and 2023. By 2033, total employment is expected to reach 174.6 million. This deceleration is tied to slower population growth and an aging workforce, which will affect the overall labor force participation rate. 

The civilian noninstitutional population—those aged 16 and older—will grow by 16.4 million over the decade, reaching 283.3 million by 2033. However, this growth is nearly 5 million less than in the previous decade. As the population growth rate continues to decline, labor force participation is expected to decrease from 62.6% in 2023 to 61.2% in 2033. 

For employers, this means a tightening labor market with potentially fewer workers available, which could increase competition for talent. 

Here are the key sectors poised for growth, as well as the shifting dynamics of the workforce. 

Healthcare and Social Assistance 

Driven by an aging population and a rise in chronic health conditions, this sector is projected to grow at an annual rate of 1.0%. For employers in these fields, the need for skilled workers, such as nurse practitioners and physician assistants, will be critical to meeting the increased demand for services.  

Information Technology

Information technology and professional services are also set to expand, with annual growth rates of 0.7%. As businesses continue to invest in digital transformation and cybersecurity, the demand for tech-savvy professionals will rise. 

Renewable Energy

The utilities sector is expected to grow by 0.6% annually, spurred by the shift towards renewable energy and the growing demand for electricity related to electric vehicles and new data centers.  

E-commerce and Logistics 

On the other hand, the retail trade sector is projected to decline by 0.2% annually, largely due to the ongoing shift towards e-commerce. However, this will likely drive growth in transportation and warehousing, as the logistics of delivering goods directly to consumers becomes increasingly vital. 

Construction and Extraction 

Construction and extraction occupations and installation, maintenance, and repair occupations are projected to grow 5.6 percent and 5.3 percent, respectively. This will largely be driven by focus on infrastructure development and the need for energy-efficient buildings moving forward.  

Why recruitment firms need to know this 

1. Preparing for future market trends 

By knowing which sectors are expected to grow or decline, recruiters can focus their efforts on sourcing candidates for industries that will have the most demand, such as healthcare, technology, and renewable energy. Conversely, understanding sectors in decline allows recruiters to advise clients on reskilling or transitioning employees to more sustainable roles. 

2. Strategic talent sourcing 

The projected slowdown in population growth and labor force participation means that the competition for top talent will intensify. This information helps recruitment firms to proactively build pipelines of qualified candidates and focus on niches where talent shortages are anticipated. 

3. Client advisory services 

Recruitment firms often act as consultants to their clients, by offering advice on workforce planning and talent acquisition strategies. Understanding the broader employment trends allows recruiters to provide data-driven recommendations to their clients. For instance, if a client is expanding in the tech sector, the recruitment firm can inform them about the projected growth in computer and mathematical occupations and help them plan accordingly. 

Getting started in the US recruitment market doesn’t need to be difficult. Working with a trusted employer of record (EOR) is a great place to start – book a call today.