Presidential elections always impact hiring trends, especially in the months leading up to them. This is primarily due to uncertainty around factors such as economic policy, taxation, regulation, and overall business sentiment. As a result, hiring generally slows across the board in the lead-up to Election Day. 

In post-election periods, companies often implement temporary hiring freezes or adopt cautious hiring strategies as they await policy clarity. 

However, this usually doesn’t last long, and employment growth typically picks up in the year following an election, once new administrations introduce policies that clarify economic directions. This pattern was evident after both the 2016 and 2020 elections, though the specifics varied by administration. 

Such cycles can challenge recruitment firms, and, as with other uncertain times, employers may become more open to flexible staffing solutions as opposed to permanent-only hires. For example, contract-to-hire arrangements may appeal to companies hesitant to make long-term hiring commitments immediately after an election. 

How contract recruitment can offer perm-only recruiters stability in uncertain times 

Here is what the data shows historically: 

2016-2017 

Following the 2016 election, hiring showed momentum in certain sectors like manufacturing and construction, supported by his “America First” policy stance. Companies initially experienced some uncertainty about immigration and trade policies, which impacted industries reliant on foreign talent, like tech. However, some sectors adapted quickly, accelerating hiring once policies were clarified or where deregulation encouraged investment. Overall unemployment rate in the United States for 2017, in the first year post-election was 4.1%, which was a 17-year low, compared to 4.7% in 2016. 

2020-2021 

The post-2020 hiring landscape was shaped significantly by pandemic recovery efforts. For example, early economic stimulus and vaccine rollouts aimed to stabilize the labor market and encourage employment growth, especially in healthcare and clean energy sectors. Though initial recovery was uneven, overall hiring picked up in 2021, as businesses adjusted to new policies supporting worker protections, diversity initiatives, and clean energy investments. The unemployment rate in 2021 was 5.3% compared to 8.1% in 2020 when the pandemic hit.  

In both cases, hiring did generally trend upward post-election as employers gained more certainty about policy directions. However, the timing and rate of growth differed based on each administration’s economic focus and external factors, such as the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020–2021.  

Historically, elections bring a level of caution that eventually stabilizes as businesses adapt to policy changes, suggesting we could see a similar pattern in 2024, with hiring adapting to whichever policy environment follows the election. 

Next Steps 

Voters will decide the presidential election on November 5, 2024, with the new president set to be inaugurated on January 20, 2025. While executive orders from the president generally take immediate effect, implementing new regulations from federal agencies can often take several months to complete. 

Potential changes in employment laws—such as those concerning minimum wage, overtime, paid leave, and related issues—may impact businesses differently depending on their industry, business structure, and workforce demographics.  

Working with an EOR can help you navigate the legal complexities of new policies in the post-election period and prepare for uncertainty. Contact our team today.